Naive optimism and decision making

Abstract

Naive optimism is defined as the belief that good outcomes are more likely and bad outcomes are less likely to happen to oneself than they are to other people. Three determinants that influence the intensity of naive optimism, and the pattern of its interaction, are defined. These determinants are the value of an event's outcomes, the perceived controllability of an event, and the degree of affinity between a decision maker and the target figure who is actually affected by the outcomes of an event. The implications of these findings in regard to decision-making processes are discussed.>

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