Comparative Analyses of the YLS/CMI, SAVRY, and PCL:YV in Adolescent Offenders: A 10-year Follow-Up Into Adulthood

FRED H. SCHMIDT · Mary Ann Campbell · Carolyn Houlding

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Psychopathy, Forensic Psychiatry, Sexual Offending Criminal Justice and Penology Crime Patterns and Interventions

Abstract

A growing body of research has been dedicated to developing adolescent risk assessment instruments, but much of this research has been limited to short-term tests of predictive validity. The current study examined the predictive and incremental validity of the Youth Level of Service/ Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI), Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY), and Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV) in adolescent offenders over a mean 10-year follow-up period. Each instrument predicted general recidivism with moderate- (YLS/CMI area under the curve [AUC] = .66) -to-large effect sizes (SAVRY AUC = .74; PCL:YV AUC = .79). However, there was variation in predictive validity across types of recidivism, and all three instruments were better at predicting recidivism in males than females. SAVRY total also demonstrated incremental validity over its structured professional judgment of risk. Clinical implications and future directions for youth risk assessment are discussed.

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2011Short and long-term prediction of recidivism using the youth level of service/case management inventory in a sample of serious young offenders.2013Predictive Validity of Risk Assessments in Juvenile Offenders 2018The Relationship Between Trauma, Recidivism Risk, and Reoffending in Male and Female Juvenile Offenders 2017Gender and Risk Assessment in Juvenile Offenders: A Meta-Analysis 2012International Perspectives on Prevention and Intervention in School Shootings

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