A Historical Analysis of the Taylor Curve

Abstract

Taylor (1979) shows that there is a permanent trade‐off between the volatilities of the output gap and inflation. Although a number of papers argue that the so‐called Taylor curve is a policy menu, we use it as an efficiency locus to gauge the appropriateness of monetary policy. We examine the efficiency of U.S. monetary policy from 1875 onward by measuring the orthogonal distance between the observed volatilities of the output gap and inflation from the Taylor curve. We also identify time periods in which the variability of the U.S. economy changed by observing shifts in this efficiency frontier.

Cite this work

No public copy is stored for this record, so only the metadata is cited.

Stored only when both papers are in the corpus — 16 citations exist upstream.

Papers that cite the same references — the relational fallback while embeddings are still backfilling.