Simulating the U.S. Impacts of Alternative Asian Soybean Rust Treatment Regimes

Abstract

Asian soybean rust (rust) is an emerging issue in U.S. crop production and was identified in nine states during 2004. Recent farm surveys indicate that many producers are adjusting their management practices to the possibility of a rust infestation. The economic and environmental impacts of such adjustments are not known in the medium run given these new developments. We combine 2005 data on the geographical distribution of the fungal pathogen that causes rust with 2005 information on the availability and material costs of fungicides to analyze three treatment strategies. Our results indicate a higher range of economic impacts than previous research has indicated, but are consistent with earlier findings indicating that rust infestations will likely result in reduced soybean production, reduced exports, and higher prices.

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