Progressive Ambition in the House: A Probabilistic Approach

Abstract

The effectiveness of elections as instruments of popular control is at a minimum predicated upon the desire of elected officeholders to retain at least their current position. Additionally, a substantial body of research has pointed to the role differential ambition plays in shaping the careers and behavior of officeholders. The following analysis evaluates decisions by members of the U.S. House of Representatives either to seek reelection or to pursue higher office. Probit analysis is employed to disentangle the relative influence of factors contributing to decisions to seek higher office. This method also allows for the estimation of the influence of each of these factors in terms of how they contribute to the probability a member would seek higher office. Among the influences evaluated, factors conditioning the nature of the opportunity for higher office emerge as the more salient determinants of decisions to pursue that office. It is believed that this technique holds promise for future inquiries into the role ambition plays in the roll call and electoral activities of House members.

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