Article2007

Hindsight Bias: On Being Wise After the Event

Hartmut Blank · Jochen Musch · RÜDIGER F. POHL

117 citations0/0 files storedSocial Cognition

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Memory Processes and Influences Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills

Abstract

Since Baruch Fischhoff's (1975) groundbreaking paper opened up a whole new research field, more than 150 journal articles and book chapters, two meta–analyses (Christensen–Szalanski & Willham, 1991; Guilbault, Bryant, Brockway & Posavac, 2004), and one special issue (Memory, 2003, edited by Ulrich Hoffrage & Rüdiger Pohl) have addressed hindsight phenomena. The current editorial aims to provide a rough roadmap to the hindsight bias research landscape. It highlights some important landmarks and developments of the last 30 years and puts the 13 articles of the present special issue into a historical and systematic perspective.

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References

1975Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty.1990Hindsight: Biased judgments of past events after the outcomes are known.1974Hindsight-foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty.1975I knew it would happen 1991The hindsight bias: A meta-analysis 2009Adaptive Rationality: An Evolutionary Perspective on Cognitive Bias 2004A Meta-Analysis of Research on Hindsight Bias 1983Motivational interpretations of hindsight bias: An individual difference analysis

Cited by

2007Identity formation: The role of identity processing style and cognitive processes 2007Ways to Assess Hindsight Bias 2012An integrative lens model approach to bias and accuracy in human inferences: Hindsight effects and knowledge updating in personality judgments.2007Cognitive Process Models of Hindsight Bias 2017A ‘curse of knowledge’ in the absence of knowledge? People misattribute fluency when judging how common knowledge is among their peers 2013Publication Bias, with a Focus on Psychiatry: Causes and Solutions

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