Did the Kyoto Protocol fail? An evaluation of the effect of the Kyoto Protocol on CO2emissions

Nicole Grunewald · Inmaculada Martínez‐Zarzoso

110 citations0/0 files storedEnvironment and Development Economics

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Climate Change Policy and Economics Energy, Environment, Economic Growth International Environmental Law and Policies

Abstract

Abstract In this paper, we empirically investigate the impact of the Kyoto Protocol on CO2emissions using a sample of 170 countries over the period 1992–2009. We propose the use of a difference-in-differences estimator with matching to address the endogeneity of the policy variable, namely Kyoto commitments. Countries are matched according to observable characteristics to create a suitable counterfactual. We correspondingly estimate a panel data model for the whole sample and the matched sample and compare the results to those obtained using an instrumental variable approach. The main results indicate that Kyoto Protocol commitments have a measurable reducing effect on CO2emissions, indicating that a treaty often deemed a ‘failure’ may in fact be producing some non-negligible effects for those who signed it.

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References

1994Economic Growth and the Environment 1991Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement 2002Reexamining the Empirical Evidence for an Environmental Kuznets Curve 2009Handbook on Impact Evaluation 2011Kyoto and the carbon footprint of nations 2012Greenhouse gas emissions and the role of the Kyoto Protocol 2007Of Montreal and Kyoto: A Tale of Two Protocols

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