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Explaining and Forecasting Bond Risk Premiums
16 references·16 citing·39 second hopsampled
Explaining and Forecasting Bond Risk Premiums (2010)Explaining and Forecasting Bond Risk Prem…Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy? (2006)Were There Regime Switches in…Bond Risk Premia (2005)Bond Risk PremiaMeasuring the Natural Rate of Interest (2003)Measuring the Natural Rate of…A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables (2003)A no-arbitrage vector autoreg…Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models (2002)Term Premia and Interest Rate…Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why? (2002)Has the Business Cycle Change…Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics (2001)Evolving Post-World War II U.…Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models (2000)Specification Analysis of Aff…Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory* (2000)Monetary Policy Rules and Mac…A YIELD‐FACTOR MODEL OF INTEREST RATES (1996)A YIELD‐FACTOR MODEL OF INTER…Common Factors Affecting Bond Returns (1991)Common Factors Affecting Bond…A Test of the Efficiency of a Given Portfolio (1989)A Test of the Efficiency of a…Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors (1988)Statistical analysis of coint…Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves (1987)Parsimonious Modeling of Yiel…A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates (1985)A Theory of the Term Structur…An equilibrium characterization of the term structure (1977)An equilibrium characterizati…The predictive power of Google searches in forecasting US unemployment (2017)The predictive power of Googl…Relationship and Transaction Lending in a Crisis (2016)Relationship and Transaction …The Economic Costs of Organised Crime: Evidence from Southern Italy (2015)The Economic Costs of Organis…Short-Term GDP Forecasting With a Mixed-Frequency Dynamic Factor Model With Stochastic Volatility (2015)Short-Term GDP Forecasting Wi…Collaboration Between Firms and Universities in Italy: The Role of a Firm’s Proximity to Top-Rated Departments (2014)Collaboration Between Firms a…Industry Dynamics and Competition from Low‐Wage Countries: Evidence on Italy (2013)Industry Dynamics and Competi…The Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Commodity Prices (2012)The Impact of Monetary Policy…Simple Banking: Profitability and the Yield Curve (2012)Simple Banking: Profitability…How Sticky are Local Expenditures in Italy? Assessing the Relevance of the 'Flypaper Effect' Through Municipal Data (2012)How Sticky are Local Expendit…Evidence on the impact of R&D and ICT investments on innovation and productivity in Italian firms (2012)Evidence on the impact of R&D…Policies for Local Development: An Evaluation of Italy's 'Patti Territoriali' (2011)Policies for Local Developmen…Imperfect Information, Real‐Time Data and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area (2011)Imperfect Information, Real‐T…Housing, consumption and monetary policy: How different are the US and the euro area? (2011)Housing, consumption and mone…Do interbank customer relationships exist? And how did they function in the crisis? Learning from Italy (2011)Do interbank customer relatio…Credit Availability and Investment in Italy: Lessons from the 'Great Recession' (2011)Credit Availability and Inves…The Rise of Risk-Based Pricing of Mortgage Interest Rates in Italy (2010)The Rise of Risk-Based Pricin…The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities (1973)Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds (1999)Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-diffusions (2000)Prospect Theory and Asset Prices (2001)An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (1973)ON THE PRICING OF CORPORATE DEBT: THE RISK STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES* (1974)Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach (2001)Measuring the Term Structure of Interest Rates (1971)THE TAX‐ADJUSTED YIELD CURVE (1975)The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes (2001)Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields (2003)Founding family ownership and the agency cost of debt (2003)Term Structure of Interest Rates (2008)CAPITAL ASSET PRICES: A THEORY OF MARKET EQUILIBRIUM UNDER CONDITIONS OF RISK* (1964)Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests (1973)THE VALUATION OF RISK ASSETS AND THE SELECTION OF RISKY INVESTMENTS IN STOCK PORTFOLIOS AND CAPITAL BUDGETS**This paper is another in a series of interrelated theoretical and statistical studies of corporate financial and investment policies being made under grants from the Rockefeller Foundation, and more recently the Ford Foundation, to the Harvard Business School. The generous support for this work is most gratefully acknowledged. The author is also much indebted to his colleagues Professors Bishop, Christenson, Kahr, Raiffa, and (especially) Schlaifer, for extensive discussion and commentary on an earlier draft of this paper; but responsibility for any errors or imperfections remains strictly his own.[Professor Sharpe's paper, “Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions of Risk” (Journal of Finance, September 1964) appeared after this paper was in final form and on its way to the printers. My first section, which parallels the first half of his paper (with corresponding conclusions), sets the algebraic framework for sections II, III and VI, (which have no counterpart in his paper) and for section IV on the equilibrium prices of risk assets, concerning which our results differ significantly for reasons which will be explored elsewhere. Sharpe does not take up the capital budgeting problem developed in section V below.] (1975)Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies (1996)A five-factor asset pricing model (2014)Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root (1979)Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root (1979)Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing (1987)MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION AND INFERENCE ON COINTEGRATION — WITH APPLICATIONS TO THE DEMAND FOR MONEY (1990)Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models (1991)PANEL COINTEGRATION: ASYMPTOTIC AND FINITE SAMPLE PROPERTIES OF POOLED TIME SERIES TESTS WITH AN APPLICATION TO THE PPP HYPOTHESIS (2004)Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model (1971)Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation (1992)A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options (1993)By Force of Habit: A Consumption‐Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior (1999)Theory of rational option pricing (2005)Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework (1983)Staggered Prices in a Utility-Maximizing Framework (1996)Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis (1999)The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective (1999)Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy (2005)Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds (1993)Discretion versus policy rules in practice (1993)Macro Factors in Bond Risk Premia (2009)Stochastic Differential Equations and Diffusion Processes (1983)Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations (2012)
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References

  • 1988Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors17,038 cited
  • 1985A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates8,333 cited
  • 1977An equilibrium characterization of the term structure6,104 cited
  • 2000Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory*4,631 cited
  • 1987Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves2,918 cited
  • 1996A YIELD‐FACTOR MODEL OF INTEREST RATES2,498 cited
  • 1989A Test of the Efficiency of a Given Portfolio2,369 cited
  • 1991Common Factors Affecting Bond Returns1,796 cited
  • 2000Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models1,708 cited
  • 2003A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables1,705 cited
  • 2006Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?1,607 cited
  • 2002Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models1,581 cited
  • 2005Bond Risk Premia1,546 cited
  • 2002Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?1,515 cited
  • 2003Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest1,062 cited
  • 2001Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics

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