Shifts, turning points and inertia exploring long-term industry trends in European transport

Abstract

In this introduction to the topical collection on the “Future of Transport in Europe”, we argue that European transport regimes are at a turning point and despite the sector inertia, we can detect cultural, societal, and technical shifts. In this article, we assume that these shifts are central in defining possible future trends, far beyond their current fragile relevance. Such an analysis steps further into the technological realm, and targets social, industrial and political issues, which could affect the future of transport up until 2050, with a special focus on the post-ownership economy. Thus, we frame both technological innovations and societal shifts, aiming to discuss the future of transport as a socio-technical construction, far beyond the commercial and economic debate. In the conclusion, we report briefly on how two conflicting elements are now relevant for the future of transport, namely inertia and innovation: both can play a significant role in opening up different transport regimes in the future, or tying us to a repletion of old patterns. This article is based on the results of an EU-funded research network ( www.race2050.org ), which we coordinated.

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