Testing the Long-Run Fisher Effect in Selected African Countries: Evidence from ARDL Bounds Test

Abstract

This paper tests the validity of the Fisher hypothesis for a sample of ten African countries. Recognizing the possibility of spurious regression results, we undertook unit root and cointegration tests. We found nominal interest rates to be I(1) series while inflation rates are I(0) series. Hence, we employed the bounds test to cointegration. The results provide evidence supporting the full Fisher effect only in Kenya. In Cote d’Ivoire and Gabon, we found a positive but less than one-for-one reaction of nominal interest rates to changes in inflation rates, lending support to the partial Fisher effect. For the other seven countries, the results suggest no evidence of long-run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation.

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