The bullwhip effect in supply chains with stochastic lead times

Zbigniew Michna · Izabela Ewa Nielsen · Peter Nielsen

13 citations0/0 files storedMathematical Economics

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Supply Chain and Inventory Management Sustainable Supply Chain Management Supply Chain Resilience and Risk Management

Abstract

In this article we consider a simple two stage supply chain.We quantify the variance amplification of ordersthe bullwhip effect in a model with stochastic lead times.Employing the moving average forecasting method for lead time demands we obtain an exact value of the bullwhip effect measure.We analyze the formula using numerical examples.

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1997Information Distortion in a Supply Chain: The Bullwhip Effect 2000The Value of Information Sharing in a Two-Level Supply Chain 1997The Bullwhip Effect In Supply Chains 1 2000Foundations of Inventory Management 2000Quantifying the Bullwhip Effect in a Simple Supply Chain: The Impact of Forecasting, Lead Times, and Information 2000The impact of exponential smoothing forecasts on the bullwhip effect 1999A Single-Item Inventory Model for a Nonstationary Demand Process 2004The Bullwhip Effect—Impact of Stochastic Lead Time, Information Quality, and Information Sharing: A Simulation Study

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