MORTALITY AT AGES 65 AND OVER IN A MIDDLE- CLASS POPULATION

Abstract

In the fall of 1959 the American Cancer Society began a comprehensive epidemiologic study of over one million men and women drawn mainly from the middle-class population [4]. The experience among the subjects of this study who were initially at least 65 years old or who subsequently attained age 65 was analyzed by attained age, age at entry, calendar-year periods, cause of death, and a number of demographic and other factors. Three sets of mortality tables were prepared: for the total population, for the ostensibly healthy, and for those not in good health. The aggregate experience among the male subjects under study was similar to the contemporary experience among standard ordinary male risks insured 16 years or longer. The corresponding experience among female subjects was lower than that among standard ordinary female risks insured 16 years or longer. The death rates among the ostensibly healthy subjects of either sex resembled closely the contemporary select mortality rates among standard ordinary risks in the age range 65-74. Thus the experience in this study among the ostensibly healthy subjects provides credible estimates of the mortality likely to be experienced among standard ordinary risks at the advanced ages, where adequate information from insurance sources is lacking. The death rates among the ostensibly healthy subjects in this study also furnish a more relevant standard of normal mortality at ages 65 and over than either population death rates or ultimate death rates among insured lives. This paper examines the effects of selection procedures such as those used in epidemiologic studies and suggests that similar procedures could be employed to select standard ordinary insurance risks at the older ages. The analysis of mortality by cause shows that selection has little effect on cancer death rates and that most of the excess mortality among those not in good health can be attributed to extra mortality from heart disease. Analysis of the mortality at ages 65 and over according to demographic and personal characteristics indicates that a good family history of longevity and higher educational attainment have an appreciable effect on * Mr. Garfinkel, not a member of the Society, is Vice President for Epidemiology and Statistics of the American Cancer Society.

Cite this work

No public copy is stored for this record, so only the metadata is cited.

Stored only when both papers are in the corpus — 13 citations exist upstream.

Papers that cite the same references — the relational fallback while embeddings are still backfilling.