A Progressivity Index for Social Security

Andrew G. Biggs · Mark Sarney · Christopher R. Tamborini

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Retirement, Disability, and Employment Economic and Fiscal Studies Financial Literacy, Pension, Retirement Analysis

Abstract

Using the Social Security Administration's MINT (Modeling Income in the Near Term) model, this paper analyzes the progressivity of the Old-Age, Survivors and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program for current and future retirees. It uses a progressivity index that provides a summary measure of the distribution of taxes and benefits on a lifetime basis. Results indicate that OASDI lies roughly halfway between a flat replacement rate and a flat dollar benefit for current retirees. Projections suggest that progressivity will remain relatively similar for future retirees. In addition, the paper estimates the effects of several policy changes on progressivity for future retirees.

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References

2005Trends in educational assortative marriage from 1940 to 2003 1948Income Tax Progression, 1929-48 2001Marriage Delayed or Marriage Forgone? New Cohort Forecasts of First Marriage for U.S. Women 1977Measurement of Tax Progressivity 1999Labor Force Participation: 75 Years of Change, 1950-98 and 1998-2005.2000The Progressivity of Social Security 2003Redistribution and Insurance: Mandatory Annuitization With Mortality Heterogeneity 1994Retooling Social Security for the 21st century: right and wrong approaches to reform

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