The Accuracy of the Juster Scale for Predicting Purchase Rates of Branded, Fast-Moving Consumer Goods

Abstract

This paper examines the suitability of the Juster Scale for predicting demand for different brands of fast moving consumer goods, within two product categories. The products used in the study were three brands of canned soup (Watties, Campbells and Heinz), and four brands of yoghurt (Ski, Yoplait, Fresh and Fruity, and No-Frills). The purchase probability data was obtained from the 1992 Palmerston North Household (face-to-face) Omnibus survey. Respondents were reinterviewed by telephone, four weeks after the omnibus survey to obtain recalled estimates of actual purchases. The Juster scale overestimated purchases, both for product categories and for brands. Purchase rates for soup were overestimated by 5 % and for yoghurt by 6%. The overestimate for individual brands were slightly larger; the average over all 7 brands being 8%.Although the accuracy of the predictions of purchase rates was disappointing, the predictions of brand share were more accurate. This study has demonstrated that it is possible to obtain quite accurate estimates of market share for branded products using the Juster Purchase Probability Scale, as well as accurate estimates of the purchase rate for each brand.

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