Money and Monetary Policy: The ECB Experience 1999-2006

Abstract

The paper analyses the practical experience of monetary analysis at the ECB since its beginning. The analysis is based on both a narrative description of the internal briefing and a quantitative evaluation of the forecast exercise. We exploit a rich data basis containing the vintages of data and models over the period in order to evaluate the role of money in the input and the output of monetary policy as it has been in real time. 1

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