Forecasting Cultivated Areas and Production of Maize in Nigerian using ARIMA Model

Abstract

This study focuses on forecasting the cultivated area and production of maize in Nigeria using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Time Series data covering the period of 1970-2005 was used for the Study. The data were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), International Financial Statistical (IFS) reports and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The result also shows maize production forecast for the year 2020 to be about 9952.72 tons with upper and lower limits 6479.8 and 13425.64 thousand tons respectively. The model also shows that the maize area would be 9229.74 thousand hectares with lower and upper limit of 7087.67 and 11371.81 thousand hectares respectively by 2020. This projection is important as it helps inform good policies with respect to relative production, price structure as well as consumption of maize in the country. The conclusion from the study is that, total cropped area can be increased in future, if land reclamation and conservation measures are adopted.

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