e study of statistical intwitions

Abstract

Stan ford University The study of intuitions and errors in judgment un~‘er umwtainty is complicated by several factors: discrepancies between acceptance and application of normative rules: effects of content on me application of rules; Sucratic hints that create intuitions while testing them; demand characteristics of within-subject experiments; subjects’ interpretations of experimental messages according to standard conversational rules. The positive analysis of a iudgmental error in terms of heuri.stics may be supplemented by a negative analysis, which seeks to explain why the correct rule is not intuitively compelling. A negative analysis of non-regressive prediction is outlined.

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