Understanding Hedonic Misprediction: The Role of Lay Beliefs

Abstract

First, misprediction can occur if consumers hold consistent, but incorrect lay beliefs. This occurs in two of the present papers, resulting in larger predicted differences in hedonic reactions than are observed in experience. In the Ebert/Meyvis paper, subjects expect the psychological distance of an experience (e.g., reading about a recent versus a distant past event) to impact both processing of the experience and its direct hedonic impact resulting in overprediction of the impact of psychological distance. In the Zhang/Hsee paper, subjects expect that differences between products that are hard to evaluate (such as the resolution of a digital camera) will affect their preferences more than they actually do. Second, consumers may hold lay beliefs that are incorrect but inconsistent across consumers or ones which lead consumers to (incorrectly) expect no impact on their hedonic reactions, resulting in no systematic effect on prediction. This is seen in the Galak/ Kruger/Loewenstein paper, where subjects’ enjoyment of repeated listening to songs or drinking beverages is strongly affected by the spacing of consumption, though their predictions show no effect of spacing. Third, consumers may hold accurate lay beliefs, but fail to apply them. This is the case in the Wang/Novemsky/Dhar paper, where consumers mispredict their product enjoyment over time because they fail to apply their accurate lay beliefs on adaptation— beliefs that are easily cued and moderated through subtle changes in product features. We expect that these four papers, tightly linked around the role of lay beliefs in affective forecasting, will lead to an interesting and thought-provoking symposium. We intend that each presentation will last for 15 minutes, with an additional 15 minutes where the discussant will highlight session themes and moderate audience questions and discussion. The papers contribute to a developing research area relevant to the interests of many ACR members, notably those interested in hedonic consumption, information processing, and judgment and decision making.

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