The demography of population ageing.

Abstract

An inevitable consequence of the demographic transition and the shift to lower fertility and mortality has been the evolution in the age structure of the world population. Many societies, especially in the more developed regions, have already attained older population age structures than have ever been seen in the past. Many developing countries in the midst of the demographic transition are experiencing rapid shifts in the relative numbers of children, working-age population and older persons. DEMOGRAPHIC ASPECTS The number of persons aged 60 years or older in the world is estimated to be 605 million in 2000. This number is projected to grow to nearly 2 billion by 2050, at which time it will be as large as the population of children (0-14 years). This historic crossover of an increasing share of older persons and a declining share of children will mark the first time that the number of children and older persons are the same. Persons aged 60 or older currently comprise 10 per cent of the world population (see table 1). The percentage is much higher in the more developed regions (20 per cent) than in the less developed regions (8 per cent), which are at an earlier stage of the demographic transition. It is especially low in the least developed countries (5 per cent). Among individual countries, the most aged are Greece and Italy, where 24 per cent of the population is aged 60 or older in 2000. Many European countries, as well as Japan, have percentages nearly as high. By 2050, the older ages will make up a projected 22 per cent of the world population—33 per cent in the more developed regions, 21 per cent in the less developed regions and 12 per cent in the least developed countries. (TABLE 1 HERE) In terms of major regions, the majority of the world’s older persons (53 per cent) reside in Asia, while Europe has the next largest share, 24 per cent (see table 2 and figure I). Asia’s share of the older population will increase to 63 per cent by 2050, while the share of Europe will show the greatest relative decrease of any region, shrinking from 24 per cent to 11 per cent.

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