Experimental voyaging, of the type made famous by the Kon-Tiki and the Hōkūleʻa, is often considered to provide a means of modelling the performance of ancient seacraft, a relevant variable if we are to understand patterning in prehistoric island colonization and maritime interaction. Recently, in order to bolster claims otherwise dependent on contentious data, some proponents who argue for maritime colonisation as an evolutionarily ancient behaviour have suggested that such experiments provide corroborating evidence for deliberate seagoing by archaic hominins. Here, we examine the epistemological foundation for these claims, and in particular what constitutes the basis for building good analogues in archaeological reasoning and the limitations of inferences drawn from them. We stress the importance of not conflating possibilities with probabilities, and caution against an unwarranted uniformitarianism in making assumptions regarding the cognitive, social, behavioural and technological contexts of archaic and modern humans.
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