The Impact of the Arab Spring on the Tunisian Economy

Samer Matta · Simon Appleton · Michael Bleaney

48 citations0/0 files storedThe World Bank Economic Review

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Political and Social Issues Natural Resources and Economic Development Economic Growth and Development

Abstract

We use Synthetic Control Methodology to estimate the output loss in Tunisia as a result of the “Arab Spring.” Our results suggest that the loss was 5.5 percent, 5.1 percent, and 6.4 percent of GDP in 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively. These findings are robust to a series of tests, including placebo tests, and are consistent with those from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model of Tunisia’s economic growth. Moreover, we find that investment was the main channel through which the economy was adversely impacted by the Arab Spring.

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References

1991Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries 2005Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences 1989Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries 2004Greed and grievance in civil war 2003The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country 1980Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment 2012Why nations fail: the origins of power, prosperity, and poverty 2000Democracy and Development

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