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Does the Yield Spread Predict Recessions in the Euro Area?*
16 references·16 citing·37 second hopsampled
Does the Yield Spread Predict Recessions in the Euro Area?* (2005)Does the Yield Spread Predict Recessions …Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability (2006)Tests of Conditional Predicti…An area-wide model for the euro area (2004)An area-wide model for the eu…Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area (2003)Monetary Policy Transmission …How Stable is the Predictive Power of the Yield Curve? Evidence from Germany and the United States (2003)How Stable is the Predictive …Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices (2003)Forecasting Output and Inflat…A Reexamination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread (2002)A Reexamination of the Predic…Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators (1998)Predicting U.S. Recessions: F…The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank (1997)The predictive power of the t…Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors (1997)Testing the equality of predi…Comparing Predictive Accuracy (1995)Comparing Predictive AccuracyComparing Predictive Accuracy (1994)Comparing Predictive AccuracyThe Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity (1991)The Term Structure as a Predi…What does the term structure tell us about future inflation? 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References

  • 1989A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle9,681 cited
  • 1994Comparing Predictive Accuracy5,495 cited
  • 1995Comparing Predictive Accuracy5,214 cited
  • 1997Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors2,103 cited
  • 1991The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity1,739 cited
  • 2006Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability1,667 cited
  • 1998Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators1,180 cited
  • 2003Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices1,076 cited
  • 1988The real term structure and consumption growth703 cited
  • 1997The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank537 cited
  • 2004An area-wide model for the euro area478 cited
  • 1990What does the term structure tell us about future inflation?428 cited
  • 2002A Reexamination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread357 cited
  • 1989Scoring the Leading Indicators351 cited
  • 2003How Stable is the Predictive Power of the Yield Curve? Evidence from Germany and the United States

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348 cited
  • 2003Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area330 cited
  • Cited by

    • 2014Forecasting US recessions: The role of sentiment117 cited
    • 2009The duration of economic expansions and recessions: More than duration dependence98 cited
    • 2005Capital requirements and business cycle regimes: Forward-looking modelling of default probabilities98 cited
    • 2009The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity77 cited
    • 2015The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve Across Countries and Time76 cited
    • 2010The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve across Countries and Time75 cited
    • 2011Forecasting US recessions with various risk factors and dynamic probit models73 cited
    • 2014Yield Curve and Recession Forecasting in a Machine Learning Framework59 cited
    • 2009Forecasting Euro-Area Recessions Using Time-Varying Binary Response Models for Financial Markets56 cited
    • 2009Financial variables and euro area growth: A non-parametric causality analysis48 cited
    • 2014Recession Prediction Using Yield Curve and Stock Market Liquidity Deviation Measures47 cited
    • 2006Chapter 16 Leading Indicators46 cited
    • 2017Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Survey40 cited
    • 2023Nowcasting the state of the Italian economy: The role of financial markets38 cited
    • 2013The term structure of interest rates as predictor of stock returns: Evidence for the IBEX 35 during a bear market37 cited
    • 2008The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator: Frequently Asked Questions36 cited