TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING: SOME FOUNDATIONS AND A REVIEW

Abstract

THE RATIONALE FOR VARIOUS STANDS OF PREVIOUS WORK IS BROUGHT TOGETHER AND DISCUSSED IN THIS PAPER WHICH PROVIDES A COMMON POINT OF DEPARTURE FOR DISCUSSION OF IMPROVED USE OF EXISTING METHODS AND OF DEVELOPMENT OF RESEARCH NEEDS. TRAVEL FORECASTING MUST HAVE A BASIS IN BEHAVIOR IF PLANNERS AND DECISION-MAKERS ARE TO BE ABLE TO UNDERSTAND AND INTERPRET THE RESULTS OF THE FORECAST. SOME BASIC MODELING CHOICES BASED ON DIFFERING BEHAVIORAL PREMISES ARE BEING DEVELOPED. THE ANALYTICALLY DERIVABLE IMPLICATIONS OF EACH MODELING CHOICE ON APPROPRIATE MATHEMATICAL-STRUCTURAL FORMS OF TRAVEL DEMAND MODELS ARE DESCRIBED FOR SOME BASIC MODELING CHOICES. IN A DISCUSSION OF CHOICE-ABSTRACT TRAVEL DEMAND MODELS, CONSIDERATION IS GIVEN TO ATTRIBUTES, SIMULATANEOUS CHOICE (ABSTRACT-MODE MODEL), AND SEQUENTIAL CONSIDERATION OF ATTRIBUTES. THE MODELING CHOICES ARE SUMMARIZED IN A DIAGRAM. THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE HIERACHY IS NOT THE RESULT OF CHOICE FORKS BUT RATHER CONTAINS EXAMPLES OF MODELS THAT HAVE IMPLEMENTED OR MIGHT IMPLEMENT THE MODELING CHOICES. CHOICE-SPECIFIC TRAVEL DEMAND MODELS ARE DISCUSSED IN DETAIL. INDEPENDENCE-OF-IRRELEVANT-ALTERNATIVE AXION, SEPARABILITY PROPERTY, TRAVEL-CHOICE BEHAVIOR, AND COMBINING STRICT-UTILITY SEQUENTIAL TRAVEL-CHOICE MODELS ARE CONSIDERED. THE APPLICATION OF TRAVEL FORECASTING MODELS AND RESEARCH DIRECTIONS IN COMBINING MODEL CHOICES IS OUTLINED. THE ASPECT OF UNITY ANALYSIS IS DETAILED IN AN APPENDIX.

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