A SYNTHESIZED TRIP-FORECASTING MODEL FOR SMALL- AND MEDIUM-SIZED URBAN AREAS

Abstract

Because of the high monetary and time costs associated with home-interview surveys for urban transportation studies, planning analysts have sought to model travel demand by using other data sources such as 1970 census worktrip data. The purpose of the research reported in this paper is to examine trip distribution functions that may be appropriate for estimating zone trip interchange in small- to medium- sized urban areas. Several functional forms of travel impedance were investigated. For the city sizes studied, model accuracy is shown to be relatively insensitive to the form of the travel impedance function. Analytical deductions are used to develop a calibration technique for a 2-way, constrained gravity model using the simple negative exponential function. Calibration of the model can be accomplished without using extensive origin- destination survey data. The model is tested by using data from actual studies, and an outline is suggested for calibrating the distribution model by using the 1970 census data.

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