AGGREGATE TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING FROM DISAGGREGATED BEHAVIORAL MODELS

Abstract

This paper derives an expression for obtaining aggregate (interzonal) travel forecasts given a probit disaggregate demand model and zonal averages and intrazonal variances of the independent variables. It also derives expressions for the biases in aggregate model calibrations resulting from zonal homogeneity assumptions in the variables. The conditions under which these biases are important are discussed. Expressions are also determined for obtaining consistent, unbiased estimates for both aggregate and disaggregate models that take into account nonhomogeneous zones and practical data limitations.

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