BEHAVIORAL MODELING OF EXPRESS BUS-FRINGE PARKING DECISIONS

Abstract

A disaggregate data base was developed to analyze the behavior of commuters based on their choice of using fringe parking and riding the express bus or driving directly to the central business district. Statistical summaries of the information obtained were analyzed and interpreted to provide a basis for selecting explanatory variables and for stratifying mathematical choice models using the logistic function. It was found that separate models should be calibrated for groups of trip makers according to the accessibility of the fringe lot to their zone of residence. The models were then calibrated by using alternative methods for specifying the time and cost differentials between the options of driving directly to the central business district and using the bus service. In this respect, models were calculated to predict the probability of choosing the express bus as a function of the age and sex of the trip makers, the ratio of automobiles to licensed drivers for their respective households, and the relative times and costs of the competing modes. Evaluation criteria, including statistical tests, were used to select the model strategy that best described the choice situation. Consequently, a model that related time and cost as the difference between modes divided by the average of the two proved best. Finally, the models were used to obtain elasticities of choice with respect to the independent variables and the value of time, which agreed with the theory and the findings of other studies.

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