Does welfare reform affect fertility? Evidence from the UK

Mike Brewer · Anita Ratcliffe · Sarah Smith

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Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics Family Dynamics and Relationships Social Policies and Family

Abstract

This paper provides evidence on the effect of welfare reform on fertility, focusing on UK reforms in 1999 that increased per-child spending by 50% in real terms. We use a difference-in-differences approach, exploiting the fact that the reforms were targeted at low-income households. The reforms were likely to differentially affect the fertility of women in couples and single women because of the opportunity cost effects of the welfare-to-work element. We find no increase in births among single women, but evidence to support an increase in births (by around 15%) among coupled women.

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References

1991A Treatise on the Family 1990An Illustration of a Pitfall in Estimating the Effects of Aggregate Variables on Micro Units 1999Empirical Strategies in Labor Economics 1978Estimating the Effect of Training Programs on Earnings 1996Labor Supply Response to the Earned Income Tax Credit 2003Taxes and the labor market participation of married couples: the earned income tax credit 2000The Labour Market Impact of the Working Families' Tax Credit 2000The Impact of the Earned Income Tax Credit and Social Policy Reforms on Work, Marriage, and Living Arrangements

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