Alternative Programming Models Involving Uncertainty

Abstract

A multiperiod linear programming model, a stochastic programming model, and a "linear team" programming model are investigated to determine how they can be applied to a farm planning problem and how widely the optimal farm plans obtained from these models differ when actual data are used. Each model takes into account both time and uncertainty. Using data for an average farm in Yolo County, California, it is found that the optimal solutions obtained from these three models are not greatly different. The differences which do exist between optimal solutions can generally be traced to cash shortages. This result is partly due to the degree of diversification "forced" on the farmer by government production controls and recommended conservation practices as well as the wide differences that exist among the profitability of the activities considered.

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