On the End of the Population Explosion

Abstract

Population projections have proliferated in the last decade or 2 yet the publics fascination with population projections and the policymakers demand for them continues unabated. Recent contributors to forecasting population are Donald J. Bogue and Amy Ong Tsui. Their findings the nature of the supporting arguments and their policy conclusions single their work out for more than routine attention. Their results vary markedly with results derived from the prevailing conventional wisdom as to the expected course of growth rates fertility rates and resulting population totals for the remainder of the 20th century particularly for the developing world. Theirs is a more optimistic vision of the future. Bogue and Tsui offer a forceful interpretation of the causal mechanism underlying the fertility declines they anticipate. They claim that their analysis leads to the prediction that the future course of world fertility may be determined in large part by the size quality and spread of the family planning campaign. Finally on the basis of their interpretation Bogue and Tsui spell out policy conclusions that seem to provide a clearcut guide for action. Focus in this discussion is on examining Bogue and Tsuis forecasts of demographic trends their interpretation of the causes of these trends and the policy implications they derive. Additionally they deserve special attention because their writing exemplifies some problems in methods and interpretations. Review of their most optimistic current world population forecasts shows that the expectation of a generalized and precipitous fertility decline in the developing world during the remainder of the 20th century continues unsubstantiated as is their claim that family planning programs offer a ready tool for precipitating and continuing such a decline.

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