Projections of Older Immigrants in France, 2008–2028

Abstract

Abstract Projections of elderly international migrants in France can provide data for social and health services to serve culturally and linguistically diverse elderly populations. In this regard, projections of future demographic trends are more useful than consideration of current migrant age structures, as the latter are biased. Often, immigrant children born in a host country are not counted with their parents for a variety of reasons. The paper evaluates the nature of return migration flows by older migrants. Although the volume of movement is lower than at younger working ages, immigration to France at older ages is significant and is made up mostly of women. However, the main component influencing trends in elderly migrants is age structure, which varies according to origin and migration history; were moves pre‐independence or post‐independence in relation to the country of origin: did they occur during an economic boom or bust; and how were they timed in relation to the policy environment? The paper shows how France's ‘closed‐border’ policy from 1975 onwards and subsequent family reunification impacted on migration trends of older people by sex. Looking to the future, the migrant communities of longest standing will increase slightly. Exceptions include the Italians and Spanish who will decline in size. Those who arrived later – Moroccans, Turks, and ‘others’ – will increase more than twofold, and sub‐Saharan Africans up to sixfold. The numbers of women will increase more rapidly than men. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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