Mortality trends and depopulation in Serbia

Abstract

The research presented in this paper is dealing with mortality and its impact on the natural increase, i.e. population dynamics in Serbia at the beginning of the 21st century. The aim is to draw attention to the potential of mortality as a natural component of changes in population when it comes to the possibility of mitigating the negative population trends. This paper will analyse changes in the age patterns of mortality of Serbian population from the mid 20th century, in order to point to the lack of progress in reducing age-specific mortality. The comparison with countries with low mortality rates (Slovenia and Sweden) will highlight the potential space for further mortality reduction in Serbia. The effect of a hypothetical fall of mortality by age on the level of natural increase will be measured on the basis of population projections for the period of half a century.

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