Fertility rate decline in Tamil Nadu: some issues.

Abstract

Intersectoral and intertemporal analyses were conducted to identify the factors responsible for fertility decline in the state of Tamil Nadu India. This fertility decline occurred without the expected preconditions: decline in infant mortality increased literacy rates and improved status of women. Tamil Nadu is the only other state besides Kerala with a total fertility rate (TFR) less than 3. Urbanization defined as the total composite of percentage of urban population rural population served by urban centers and distance to the nearest town is greatest in Tamil Nadu suggesting that rural-urban linkages are strong here. Fertility did not begin to consistently decline until 1979. The analysis of interdistrict variation in fertility found that availability of all weather roads and child mortality were the most significant factors affecting fertility. During 1971-1981 the total length of roads increased by 45%. Nonmajor district roads village roads and roads maintained by panchayats comprised most of the increase (79-90% increase in total length for these roads). Better roads improved connections between rural and urban areas. The researchers regressed the rural TFR with the consumer price index of agricultural laborers in respect of foodgrains and found that a 10% increase in foodgrain prices causes a 3.8% reduction in fertility. Thus poverty and improved rural-urban connections effected the fertility decline. This finding questions the common belief that poor persons have large families. These findings suggest that better roads increase the participation rate of females in nonfarm activities facilitate better access to health facilities and influence the attitudes of rural people.

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