Performance Comparisons between Arima and Arimax Method in Moslem Kids Clothes Demand Forecasting: Case Study

Abstract

The Moslem kids clothes demand in Habibah Busana are likely increase at certain times, especially near the Eid-holidays. that total demands in each year is varies and always increase when near the Eid holidays. The demand always increases when near Eid-holidays but decrease in next month. It's repeat every year but unfortunately it occur in different time every year. it means that Eid holidays occur in different time every year. It make the company in uncertainty condition. This research compare Arima method which make forecast in univariate data and Arimax as multivariate method which include independent variables such as different time of Eid holidays every year. The result show that Arimax method is better than Arima method in accuracy level of training, testing, and next time forecasting processes. There are minimum fourteen variables have to include in Arimax model in order to make accuracy level is not decrease.

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