Fertility and development.

Abstract

A simple version of Easterlin's "synthesis framework" is presented, followed by a model of the interrelations of fertility and development (or modernization) that elaborates on the scheme initially advanced by Tabbarah. A few empirical applications of the approach are also included. The framework of analysis is a modification of the usual economic theory of fertility in order to take fuller account of the theoretical and empirical work of demographers and sociologists. The determinants of fertility are seen as working through 1 or more of the following: 1) the demand for children--the number of surviving children parents would desire if there was no expense associated with fertility regulation; 2) the potential output of children--the number of surviving children parents would have if they did not deliberately limit fertility; and 3) the costs of fertility regulation, including both psychic and objective costs. The role of these factors in determining actual fertility differs according to the comparative state of the potential output of, and the demand for, children. Among the complex of changes embraced by modernization, several appear to be particularly important in bringing about the shift to modern conditions of childbearing. Historically, these have been the following: innovations in public health and medical care; innovations in formal schooling and mass media; urbanization; the introduction of new goods; and per capita income growth. Presented in chart form is a summary view based on the framework sketched of the channels through which reproductive behavior is influenced by these various aspects of modernization. A schematic model of the impact of modernization on family reproductive behavior is presented.

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