Articlehybrid2016

The research on prediction models for urban family member trip generation

18 citations0/0 files storedKSCE Journal of Civil Engineering

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Transportation Planning and Optimization Traffic Prediction and Management Techniques Human Mobility and Location-Based Analysis

Abstract

This paper validates the hypothesis that head of household's attributes and travel behavior having effects on other family members' trip frequency in the same household. With using Multinomial Logit Model (MNL) and data source obtained from Resident Trip Survey in Nanjing, 2010, it shows that other family members' trip frequency are much more relative to head of household's. Therefore, we propose an idea that investigates the potential possibility of using Multinomial Logit model (MNL) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) to predict other family members' trip frequency with household's information. By comparing the prediction accuracy, it is found that the SVM only slightly performs better on overall average accuracy. Then a modified SVM model with significant variables estimated by MNL model is given. The results report that, modified SVM model not only performs better on overall average accuracy than general SVM model and MNL model, but significantly improves partial average accuracy compared with general SVM model. However, the modified SVM still expectedly has a poor performance on predicting for small proportion samples. In the end, some possible improvements are discussed as well as expectation for further studies.

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References

2009Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 1997A model of activity participation and travel interactions between household heads 2008Household interactions and children’s school travel: the effect of parental work patterns on walking and biking to school 2005Modeling household interactions in daily in-home and out-of-home maintenance activity participation 2003Dimensions in elderly travel behaviour: A simplified activity-based model using lifestyle clusters 2008Modeling household activity travel behavior: Examples of state of the art modeling approaches and research agenda 2012Capacitated assortment and price optimization under the multinomial logit model 2002Travel behavior at the household level: understanding linkages with residential choice

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