A stochastic and deterministic model of medical care utilization.

Abstract

A previously reported stochastic model predicting the future distribution of a stable population in various states of health care is here modified and expanded to take into account the stochastic process of varying rates of utilization among different age groups and the stochastic and deterministic processes that determine changes in size and age structure of the population. The functioning of the model is described and its use illustrated by application to a hypothetical population. Given an adequate data base, the model offers a quantitative tool for estimating future resources required by each component of the health services system.

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