ARE DAILY CROSS-BORDER EQUITY FLOWS PUSHED OR PULLED?

John Y. Campbell

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Financial Markets and Investment Strategies Global Financial Crisis and Policies Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling

Abstract

John M. Griffin, Federico Nardari, and ReneM. Stulz* Abstract—We investigate the conditions under which an intertemporal equilibrium model based on investors' portfolio decisions can explain the dynamics of high-frequency equity flows. Our model shows that, when there are barriers to international investment and when the expectations of foreign investors are more extrapolative than those of domestic investors (either due to foreigners being less informed or for behavioral reasons), unexpectedly high worldwide or local stock returns lead to net equity inflows in small countries. We investigate these predictions using daily data on net equity flows for nine emerging-market countries. Equity flows are positively related to host-country stock returns as well as market performance abroad at daily frequencies. Though these effects are remark- ably robust at the daily frequency, they dissipate quickly.

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References

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2005The dynamics of international equity market expectations 2008Cross-border listings, capital controls, and equity flows to emerging markets 2011Sudden Flight and True Sudden Stops 2010A Study of Exchange Rates Movement and Stock Market Volatility 2011Global Asset Pricing 2015What drives international portfolio flows?

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