The study ofαin GM(1,1) model

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyze a predicted error in using the GM(1, 1) model based on the parameter α. The transfer function for the predicted error with the parameter α in the GM(1, 1) model is presented. The algorithm of solving equations in calculus is used to analyze whether the α is adaptive or not. The criterion of α is applied to describe the adaptive criterion of α. Finally, an example of the cagenet amounts of fish in the Peng‐hu area is used to demonstrate the small prediction error due to the optimal α value. The result shows that the criterion for α is applicable for minimizing the predicted error easily.

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