Volatility Spillover in Foreign Exchange Markets

Rajni Kant Rajhans · Anuradha Jain

17 citations0/0 files storedParadigm A Management Research Journal

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Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling Global Financial Crisis and Policies Market Dynamics and Volatility

Abstract

The recent financial crisis in the US and then the debt crisis in Europe have impacted the economical performance of the world in general, particularly the financial performance. With the increase in globalization and cross-border trade, the dependence of one economy on others increases. Portfolio diversification theory proposed by Markowitz, in 1952, suggests that if two markets are not significantly correlated, taking a position in that market helps in reducing the risk of the portfolio. The recent turmoil in these two markets (US and Europe) has affected the entire world and a lot of volatility has been observed in all financial markets around the world. Hence, it becomes imperative to identify the volatility spillover effect from one market to the other at this point. This article examines the volatility spillover of one market on other by taking five exchange rate markets: Great Britain pound (GBP), Euro (EUR), Canadian dollar (CAD) and Australian dollar (AUD) and Japanese yen (JPY) against the US dollar. Data from June 2008 to December 2012 were taken for consideration. Unit root test was used to identify the stationarity of data and the variance decomposition method was applied to identify the degree of influence of one market on other. The volatility spillover index, as suggested by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009), was created to identify the return spillover effect. Outcomes suggest that volatility on JPY and CAD follows the concept ‘better to give than receive’, while GBP as the net receiver goes along with the findings of Nikolaos (2012). A volatility spillover index of 11.11 per cent indicates low possibility of volatility transmission among considered currency pairs. This article will help traders, portfolio managers, policy makers and other market participants identify the source of volatility in considered currency markets and to take corrective measures.

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References

2008Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets 1993Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis 1974An equilibrium model of the international capital market 1995The World Price of Foreign Exchange Risk 1992Industrial Structure and the Comparative Behavior of International Stock Market Indices 1983World Economic Outlook 1998How big is the premium for currency risk?1We thank Geert Bekaert, Tim Bollerslev, Peter Bossaerts, Mark Carhart, John Cochrane, Magnus Dahlquist, Wayne Ferson, Linda Goldberg, Campbell Harvey, Pierre Hillion, Robert Hodrick (the referee), Olivier Ledoit, John Matsusaka, Hans Mikkelsen, Angel Serrat and Ivo Welch, as well as workshop participants at INSEAD, University of California at Los Angeles, University of Southern California, University of Rochester, Southern Methodist University, University of California – Irvine, Koc University and participants at the 1996 UBC Global Investment Conference (Whistler, BC), 1996 Western Finance Association meetings (Sunriver, OR), 1996 European Finance Association meetings (Oslo, Norway), 1996 NBER Asset Pricing meeting (Evanston, IL), and the 1997 Econometric Society winter meetings (New Orleans, LA) for their comments. The paper was written while the second author was visiting the Anderson School at UCLA. Both authors acknowledge the financial support of a CIBEAR grant.1 1997The Exchange-Rate Risk Exposure of Asset Returns

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