Articlegold2016

Cognitive reflection as a predictor of susceptibility to behavioral anomalies

43 citations0/0 files storedJudgment and Decision Making

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills

Abstract

Abstract To study the effect of cognitive reflection on behavioral anomalies, we used the cognitive reflection test to measure cognitive reflection. The study was conducted on 395 Iranian university students and shows that subjects with lower cognitive reflection are significantly more likely to exhibit the conjunction fallacy, illusion of control, overconfidence, base rate fallacy, and conservatism. In addition, test scores are correlated with risk preferences. The results do not show any relationship between cognitive reflection and self-serving bias or status quo bias. We also find that gender is significantly related to illusion of control and self-serving bias.

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References

1974Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases 1973On the psychology of prediction.1988Status quo bias in decision making 2003A perspective on judgment and choice: Mapping bounded rationality.2005Cognitive Reflection and Decision Making 1983Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment.1975The illusion of control.1998A model of investor sentiment1We are grateful to the NSF for financial support, and to Oliver Blanchard, Alon Brav, John Campbell (a referee), John Cochrane, Edward Glaeser, J.B. Heaton, Danny Kahneman, David Laibson, Owen Lamont, Drazen Prelec, Jay Ritter (a referee), Ken Singleton, Dick Thaler, an anonymous referee, and the editor, Bill Schwert, for comments.1

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