Economic Implementation Constraints on Preserving Land from Sprawl: The Case of the Delaware Valley

Abstract

Urban sprawl is one of the most pressing policy issues facing today's county governments. Most of the policy analysis in this area is limited to international comparisons, focusing on differences in national political structure as determinants of policy success. This paper explores determinants of land preservation outcomes at the sub-national level and hones in on a specific area, examining the implementation of land preservation efforts taken by several counties in the Greater Philadelphia Area. A simultaneous equation model is used to examine the impact of various factors on land preservation outcomes. Findings suggest that differences in the price of land, population growth and funding for land acquisition are all key dimensions of implementation constraint that explain variation in policy outcomes. The model predicts that given population projections, seven of the eight counties will face significant shortfalls in the funds necessary to preserve the amounts of open space prescribed by the local Metropolitan Planning Organization. Given these findings, it is likely that efforts to preserve land will fail without significant increases in funding and more effective controls on land use.

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