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Forecasting the Effects of an Aging Population on Product Consumption: An Age-Period-Cohort Framework

94 citations0/0 files storedJournal of Marketing Research

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Forecasting Techniques and Applications Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics

Abstract

A method of forecasting the effects of changing age distributions and cohort succession on product consumption is presented. Cohort analysis is used to estimate the effects of age, period, and cohort membership on consumption. Recent developments in cohort analysis are reviewed and a study of coffee consumption reported. The forecasts differ from traditional cross-sectional forecasts and in some cases predict changes opposite in directionality. The cohort forecasts are shown to be more accurate than cross-sectional forecasts in the coffee study. The method is not limited to forecasting product consumption, but can be used in forecasting other behaviors, attitudes, and opinions.

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References

2025Advances in Consumer Research 1975Applied Linear Statistical Models.1965The Cohort as a Concept in the Study of Social Change 1973Some Methodological Issues in Cohort Analysis of Archival Data 1976Cohort Analysts' Futile Quest: Statistical Attempts to Separate Age, Period and Cohort Effects 1979Identification and Estimation of Age-Period-Cohort Models in the Analysis of Discrete Archival Data 1982Estimable Functions of Age, Period, and Cohort Effects 1985Cohort Analysis in Social Research

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