Marital dissolution is commonly assumed to cause increased depression among adults, but causality can be questioned based on directionality and third variable concerns. The present study improves upon past research by using a propensity score matching algorithm to identify a sub-sample of continuously married participants equivalent in divorce risk to participants who actually experienced separation/divorce between two waves of the nationally representative study, Midlife Development in the United States (MIDUS). After correcting for participants' propensity to separate/divorce, increased rates of depression at the second assessment were observed only among participants who were (a) depressed at the initial assessment, and (b) experienced a separation/divorce. Participants who were not depressed at the initial assessment but who experienced a separation/divorce were not at increased risk for a later major depressive disorder (MDE). Thus, both social selection and social causation contribute to the increased risk for a MDE found among separated/divorced adults.
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