Modeling and Projecting Population for Muslim of Urban Area in Bangladesh

Abstract

In this paper, the population for Muslim of Urban region in Bangladesh is projected by using the exponential growth rate method. For this connection, the information of data for Urban Muslim population for male and female of Bangladesh is obtained from 1991 and 2001 censuses. The projections are computed in three stage procedures. In the first stage, the predictions are computed using negative exponential growth model estimated by the Quasi-Newton method using STATISTICA for the years 1991 and 2001. Using the cross validation predictive power (CVPP) criterion and , the shrinkage coefficient ( ) is constructed. The shrinkage coefficient determines the adequacy of the first phase prediction. In the second stage, these predicted values are used to estimate the growth rate, for different age groups, by using the exponential growth rate method. In the third stage, that is, finally considering the observed population for Muslim of Urban region in Bangladesh for the Census year 2001 as the base population and using the estimated exponential growth rate, at different age groups, of the second stage estimation, the projections for the population of Muslim of Urban region are estimated for the years 2002 through to 2021 employing exponential growth rate method.

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