Articlegreen2012

Causality between Exports and Economic Growth: Investigating Suitable Trade Policy for Pakistan

57 citations0/0 files storedDOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)

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Global trade and economics Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Economic and Technological Innovation

Abstract

This study investigates causal relationship between GDP and exports for the period of 1975 to 2010. The aim of this study is to check affectivity of export promotion policy adopted by Pakistan during 1990s. Johansen test of Cointegration and Granger Causality employed to determine short run and long run causality. The result of Cointegration reveals existence of one positive cointegrating equation. The result of Causality test show short run and long run causality run from GDP to exports. The result concludes that both in short and long run only growth in production cause exports growth. Government should attempt to develop production side, which in long run develop trade and economy.

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References

1987Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing 1969Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods 1981Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root 1990MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION AND INFERENCE ON COINTEGRATION — WITH APPLICATIONS TO THE DEMAND FOR MONEY 1985Exports, growth and causality in developing countries 2001Exports, imports, and economic growth in Portugal: evidence from causality and cointegration analysis 1999Exports and economic growth in Asian developing countries Cointegration and error-correction models 2002Export performance and economic growth nexus in Japan: a bootstrap approach

Cited by

2015Pakistan’s potential export flow: The gravity model approach 2017Agricultural exports and economic growth in Pakistan: an econometric reassessment 2021Is export-led growth hypothesis still valid for sub-Saharan African countries? New evidence from panel data analysis 2017The Impact of Imports and Exports Performance on the Economic Growth of Somalia 2014Trade liberalization and its economic impact on developing and least developed countries

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