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The Time Series Behavior of Earnings
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The Time Series Behavior of Earnings (1970)The Time Series Behavior of EarningsTHE VALUATION OF RISK ASSETS AND THE SELECTION OF RISKY INVESTMENTS IN STOCK PORTFOLIOS AND CAPITAL BUDGETS**This paper is another in a series of interrelated theoretical and statistical studies of corporate financial and investment policies being made under grants from the Rockefeller Foundation, and more recently the Ford Foundation, to the Harvard Business School. The generous support for this work is most gratefully acknowledged. The author is also much indebted to his colleagues Professors Bishop, Christenson, Kahr, Raiffa, and (especially) Schlaifer, for extensive discussion and commentary on an earlier draft of this paper; but responsibility for any errors or imperfections remains strictly his own.[Professor Sharpe's paper, “Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions of Risk” (Journal of Finance, September 1964) appeared after this paper was in final form and on its way to the printers. My first section, which parallels the first half of his paper (with corresponding conclusions), sets the algebraic framework for sections II, III and VI, (which have no counterpart in his paper) and for section IV on the equilibrium prices of risk assets, concerning which our results differ significantly for reasons which will be explored elsewhere. Sharpe does not take up the capital budgeting problem developed in section V below.] (1975)THE VALUATION OF RISK ASSETS …The Role of Securities in the Optimal Allocation of Risk-bearing (1973)The Role of Securities in the…FINANCIAL RATIOS, DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS AND THE PREDICTION OF CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY (1968)FINANCIAL RATIOS, DISCRIMINAN…Dividend Policy: An Empirical Analysis (1968)Dividend Policy: An Empirical…An Empirical Evaluation of Accounting Income Numbers (1968)An Empirical Evaluation of Ac…Some Preliminary Findings on the Association between the Earnings of a Firm, Its Industry, and the Economy (1967)Some Preliminary Findings on …SOME ESTIMATES OF THE COST OF CAPITAL TO THE ELECTRIC UTILITY INDUSTRY, 1954-57 (1966)SOME ESTIMATES OF THE COST OF…Financial Ratios As Predictors of Failure (1966)Financial Ratios As Predictor…The Behavior of Stock-Market Prices (1965)The Behavior of Stock-Market …Investment Decision Under Uncertainty: Choice-Theoretic Approaches (1965)Investment Decision Under Unc…CAPITAL ASSET PRICES: A THEORY OF MARKET EQUILIBRIUM UNDER CONDITIONS OF RISK* (1964)CAPITAL ASSET PRICES: A THEOR…A Simplified Model for Portfolio Analysis (1963)A Simplified Model for Portfo…Theory of Value (1959)Theory of ValueSustainable competitive advantage and profitability persistence: Sources versus outcomes for assessing advantage (2017)Sustainable competitive advan…Entrepreneurial Learning, the IPO Decision, and the Post-IPO Drop in Firm Profitability (2008)Entrepreneurial Learning, the…Innovation, Future Earnings, and Market Efficiency (2005)Innovation, Future Earnings, …The Quality of Financial Statements: Perspectives from the Recent Stock Market Bubble (2003)The Quality of Financial Stat…Does the Stock Market Fully Appreciate the Implications of Leading Indicators for Future Earnings? Evidence from Order Backlog (2003)Does the Stock Market Fully A…Stock Valuation and Learning About Profitability (2002)Stock Valuation and Learning …When Capital Follows Profitability: Non-linear Residual Income Dynamics (2001)When Capital Follows Profitab…Interfirm differences in scale economies and the evolution of market shares (1999)Interfirm differences in scal…Valuation of Permanent, Transitory, and Price-Irrelevant Components of Reported Earnings (1998)Valuation of Permanent, Trans…Accounting earnings and executive compensation: (1998)Accounting earnings and execu…Permanent versus transitory components of annual earnings and estimation error in earnings response coefficients (1992)Permanent versus transitory c…An Evaluation of Accounting Rate-of-return (1991)An Evaluation of Accounting R…Unobservable Effects and Business Performance (1990)Unobservable Effects and Busi…INCOME SMOOTHING BY ECONOMY SECTOR (1990)INCOME SMOOTHING BY ECONOMY S…The Time-Series Behavior of Quarterly Earnings: Preliminary Evidence (1977)The Time-Series Behavior of Q…Predicting Earnings with Sub-Entity Data: Some Further Evidence (1976)Predicting Earnings with Sub-…The Cost of Capital, Corporation Finance and the Theory of Investment (1958)Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares (1961)On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance (1997)The cost of capital, corporation finance and the theory of investment (2008)DISTRIBUTION OF INCOMES OF CORPORATIONS AMONG DIVIDENDS, RETAINED EARNINGS AND TAXES (1956)The capital asset pricing model: Some empirical tests (1972)Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests (1973)Quarterly Dividend and Earnings Announcements and Stockholders' Returns: An Empirical Analysis (1980)Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investments (1959)Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach (1991)Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy (1980)Methodological Issues Related to the Estimation of Financial Distress Prediction Models (1984)In Search of Distress Risk (2008)The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities (1973)Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure (1976)Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds (1993)An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (1973)An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities (1979)Theory of Financial Decision Making. (1988)EFFICIENT CAPITAL MARKETS: A REVIEW OF THEORY AND EMPIRICAL WORK* (1970)Using daily stock returns (1985)Efficient Capital Markets: II (1991)THE PERFORMANCE OF MUTUAL FUNDS IN THE PERIOD 1945–1964 (1968)The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information (2003)Managerial incentives and risk-taking☆ (2005)How does financial reporting quality relate to investment efficiency? (2009)Agency Problems and Residual Claims (1983)Well-being : the foundations of hedonic psychology (1999)
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References

  • 1964CAPITAL ASSET PRICES: A THEORY OF MARKET EQUILIBRIUM UNDER CONDITIONS OF RISK*19,431 cited
  • 1968FINANCIAL RATIOS, DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS AND THE PREDICTION OF CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY14,869 cited
  • 1965The Behavior of Stock-Market Prices8,707 cited
  • 1975THE VALUATION OF RISK ASSETS AND THE SELECTION OF RISKY INVESTMENTS IN STOCK PORTFOLIOS AND CAPITAL BUDGETS**This paper is another in a series of interrelated theoretical and statistical studies of corporate financial and investment policies being made under grants from the Rockefeller Foundation, and more recently the Ford Foundation, to the Harvard Business School. The generous support for this work is most gratefully acknowledged. The author is also much indebted to his colleagues Professors Bishop, Christenson, Kahr, Raiffa, and (especially) Schlaifer, for extensive discussion and commentary on an earlier draft of this paper; but responsibility for any errors or imperfections remains strictly his own.[Professor Sharpe's paper, “Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions of Risk” (Journal of Finance, September 1964) appeared after this paper was in final form and on its way to the printers. My first section, which parallels the first half of his paper (with corresponding conclusions), sets the algebraic framework for sections II, III and VI, (which have no counterpart in his paper) and for section IV on the equilibrium prices of risk assets, concerning which our results differ significantly for reasons which will be explored elsewhere. Sharpe does not take up the capital budgeting problem developed in section V below.]6,743 cited
  • 1968An Empirical Evaluation of Accounting Income Numbers6,384 cited
  • 1966Financial Ratios As Predictors of Failure4,753 cited
  • 1963A Simplified Model for Portfolio Analysis2,740 cited
  • 1959Theory of Value2,538 cited
  • 1973The Role of Securities in the Optimal Allocation of Risk-bearing1,179 cited

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  • 1968Dividend Policy: An Empirical Analysis933 cited
  • 1966SOME ESTIMATES OF THE COST OF CAPITAL TO THE ELECTRIC UTILITY INDUSTRY, 1954-57588 cited
  • 1965Investment Decision Under Uncertainty: Choice-Theoretic Approaches357 cited
  • 1967Some Preliminary Findings on the Association between the Earnings of a Firm, Its Industry, and the Economy227 cited
  • Cited by

    • 1990Unobservable Effects and Business Performance258 cited
    • 1991An Evaluation of Accounting Rate-of-return253 cited
    • 2002Stock Valuation and Learning About Profitability239 cited
    • 1998Accounting earnings and executive compensation:209 cited
    • 2003Does the Stock Market Fully Appreciate the Implications of Leading Indicators for Future Earnings? Evidence from Order Backlog205 cited
    • 1977The Time-Series Behavior of Quarterly Earnings: Preliminary Evidence201 cited
    • 2003The Quality of Financial Statements: Perspectives from the Recent Stock Market Bubble179 cited
    • 2008Entrepreneurial Learning, the IPO Decision, and the Post-IPO Drop in Firm Profitability176 cited
    • 1990INCOME SMOOTHING BY ECONOMY SECTOR153 cited
    • 2005Innovation, Future Earnings, and Market Efficiency147 cited
    • 1998Valuation of Permanent, Transitory, and Price-Irrelevant Components of Reported Earnings140 cited
    • 1992Permanent versus transitory components of annual earnings and estimation error in earnings response coefficients138 cited
    • 1976Predicting Earnings with Sub-Entity Data: Some Further Evidence120 cited
    • 1999Interfirm differences in scale economies and the evolution of market shares119 cited
    • 2017Sustainable competitive advantage and profitability persistence: Sources versus outcomes for assessing advantage111 cited
    • 2001When Capital Follows Profitability: Non-linear Residual Income Dynamics102 cited