Fundamentals of the Dempster-Shafer theory and its applications to system safety and reliability modelling

Rakowsky Uwe Kay

44 citations0/0 files storedJournal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

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Multi-Criteria Decision Making Reliability and Maintenance Optimization Risk and Safety Analysis

Abstract

The Dempster-Shafter Theory is well-known for its usefulness to express uncertain judgments of experts. This contribution shows how to apply the calculus to safety and reliability modelling, especially to expert judgement; Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis; Event Tree Analysis, Fault Tree Analysis, and Reliability Centred Maintenance. Including a tutorial introduction to the Dempster-Shafer Theory, the differences between the Probability and the Dempster-Shafer Theory are discussed widely.

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References

1998Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM)2003Constructing Probability Boxes and Dempster-Shafer Structures 1999Reasoning with imprecise belief structures 1982Generalized probabilities of fuzzy events from fuzzy belief structures 1991A probabilistic foundation for vagueness and imprecision in fault-tree analysis 1994Some qualitative approaches to applying the Dempster-Shafer theory 2000Uncertainties in Fault Tree Analysis

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