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The Logic of Surprise
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The Logic of Surprise (1953)The Logic of SurprisePotential Surprise Theory as a Practical and Theoretical Cornerstone of the Uncertainty‐Based Perspective on Risk (2026)Potential Surprise Theory as …Why we need normative theories of entrepreneurial learning that go beyond Bayesianism (2022)Why we need normative theorie…Distinguishing unpredictability from uncertainty in entrepreneurial action theory (2022)Distinguishing unpredictabili…Erwarten, Vorstellen, Entscheiden (2020)Erwarten, Vorstellen, Entsche…Catastrophic Risk, Rare Events, and Black Swans: Could There Be a Countably Additive Synthesis? (2016)Catastrophic Risk, Rare Event…Entscheidung als notwendige Fiktion. Über eine fundamentale ökonomische Narration (2015)Entscheidung als notwendige F…Ambiguity and uncertainty in Ellsberg and Shackle (2009)Ambiguity and uncertainty in …SHACKLE AND MODERN DECISION THEORY (2008)SHACKLE AND MODERN DECISION T…International Relations Theory and the Second Korean War (2003)International Relations Theor…Debates on the Utility of Risk. A Look Back to Move Forward (2001)Debates on the Utility of Ris…Decision theory with complex uncertainties (1988)Decision theory with complex …Changes in Integrative Complexity Prior to Surprise Attacks (1988)Changes in Integrative Comple…Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (1979)Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty (1992)Modifications of the Hurwicz’s decision rule (2013)Daniel Ellsberg and the Validation of Normative Propositions (2016)Understanding the failure to understand New Product Development failures: Mitigating the uncertainty associated with innovating new products by combining scenario planning and forecasting (2017)Is There an Allais Paradox? A Note on its Resolution (1989)Is There an Ellsberg-Fellner Paradox? A Note on its Resolution (1989)Advances in Mathematical Finance (2007)Theory of games and economic behavior (2019)Revolutionary leaders: Long-term success as a function of changes in conceptual complexity. (1976)Integrative Complexity of Communications in International Crises (1977)Psychology and Deterrence (1989)Two ways to be complex and why they matter: Implications for attitude strength and lying. (2008)The Cognitive Processing of Politics and Politicians: Archival Studies of Conceptual and Integrative Complexity (2010)Are Conservatives Really More Simple‐Minded than Liberals? The Domain Specificity of Complex Thinking (2015)An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change. (1983)The siren call of probability: Dangers associated with using probability for consideration of the future (2017)Scenario analysis to support decision making in addressing wicked problems: Pitfalls and potential (2018)Theory of International Politics (1980)Theory of International Politics, by Kenneth N. Waltz (1980)War and Change in World Politics (1981)The Theory of Economic Development: An Inquiry into Profits, Capital, Credit, Interest, and the Business Cycle (1934)The black swan: the impact of the highly improbable (2007)The social psychology of organizing (1969)External Control of Organizations: Resource Dependence Perspective (2011)Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011)Immersed in Coleman's bathtub: multilevel dynamics driving new venture survival in emerging markets (2023)Entrepreneurial actions under uncertainty: the role of psychological variables and decision logics (2024)Towards an entrepreneurial judgement theory: Building the cognitive microfoundations of entrepreneurial judgement (2024)Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (1945)Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms (1961)Entrepreneurial Action And The Role Of Uncertainty In The Theory Of The Entrepreneur (2006)Pivot, persist or perish? Knowledge problems and the extraordinarily tight boundary conditions of entrepreneurs as scientists (2024)Scientific decision-making, project selection and longer-term outcomes (2024)Does a Theory-of-Value Add Value? Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial with Tanzanian Entrepreneurs (2025)Killing, Letting Die, and the Trolley Problem (1976)On The Quantitative Definition of Risk (1981)Support theory: A nonextensional representation of subjective probability. (1994)A BEHAVIORAL MODEL OF RATIONAL CHOICE (1955)CAPITAL ASSET PRICES: A THEORY OF MARKET EQUILIBRIUM UNDER CONDITIONS OF RISK* (1964)
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  • 1988Changes in Integrative Complexity Prior to Surprise Attacks112 cited
  • 2003International Relations Theory and the Second Korean War76 cited
  • 2009Ambiguity and uncertainty in Ellsberg and Shackle44 cited
  • 2008SHACKLE AND MODERN DECISION THEORY36 cited
  • 2022Why we need normative theories of entrepreneurial learning that go beyond Bayesianism35 cited
  • 2022Distinguishing unpredictability from uncertainty in entrepreneurial action theory30 cited
  • 1988Decision theory with complex uncertainties11 cited
  • 2026Potential Surprise Theory as a Practical and Theoretical Cornerstone of the Uncertainty‐Based Perspective on Risk2 cited
  • 2016Catastrophic Risk, Rare Events, and Black Swans: Could There Be a Countably Additive Synthesis?2 cited
  • 2001Debates on the Utility of Risk. A Look Back to Move Forward2 cited
  • 2015Entscheidung als notwendige Fiktion. Über eine fundamentale ökonomische Narration0 cited
  • 2020Erwarten, Vorstellen, Entscheiden0 cited

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