Procedures Guide for Structural Expert Judgement in Accident Consequence Modelling

Roger M. Cooke · Louis H. J. Goossens

150 citations0/0 files storedRadiation Protection Dosimetry

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Risk and Safety Analysis Nuclear and radioactivity studies Risk Perception and Management

Abstract

A protocol is outlined for using structured expert judgement to generate uncertainty data for uncertainty analyses. The use of performance based weighting as an instrument to enable optimisation of the aggregated experts' assessments is emphasised. Examples are shown from the EC/USNRC joint study on Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis.

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1993Experts in uncertainty

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2017A practical guide to structured expert elicitation using the IDEA protocol 2005Risks and decisions for conservation and environmental management 2014Guidance on Expert Knowledge Elicitation in Food and Feed Safety Risk Assessment 2018Eliciting improved quantitative judgements using the IDEA protocol: A case study in natural resource management 2014The Aggregation of Expert Judgment: Do Good Things Come to Those Who Weight?2015Trusting Judgements: How to Get the Best out of Experts 2018The Value of Performance Weights and Discussion in Aggregated Expert Judgments 2012Capturing and Integrating Knowledge for Managing Risks in Tunnel Works

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