Estimating the Population Size of Ancient Settlements: Methods, Problems, Solutions, and a Case Study

Abstract

An important element in any attempt to reconstruct an ancient culture is the ability to estimate the size and distribution of that society's population. Efforts to estimate ancient populations focus on the population size of specific settlements (the micro level) and on entire regions (the macro level). This study evaluates the primary means used to make these estimates: those based on density of habitation coefficients and those based on the availability of natural resources. It then explores their strengths and weaknesses, offering suggestions on how these methods may be improved. The Iron Age site of Tell en-Nasbeh is used as a test case of the site-specific methods. The article shows how different methods may be used together to achieve a population estimate at a site where the architectural pattern for the settlement is reasonably clear. Tell en-Nasbeh probably had a population of 800 to 1000 in the Iron Age II period, and perhaps 400 to 500 in the following Babylonian period.

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